The overall mission of the Project is, through international collaboration, to develop, demonstrate and quantify the benefits of improvements to the forecasting of significant convection and associated hazards. The Project will also devote special attention on developing and demonstrating advancements in probabilistic forecasting and statistical methods (for providing confidence information and other assessments for the end-users), as well as on forecast verification and validation.
Leveraging advances in meteorological observing, nowcasting and forecasting research to enable the delivery of risk-based, hazard-impact information services that fully meet aviation users’ needs.
Key research areas
In response to end-users’ needs and feedback on AvRDP as expressed in various ICAO and WMO documents, AvRDP2 will focus on scientific advancement in observation, forecasting, warning of meteorological conditions considered hazardous to aviation including capacity building, but not limited to:
- Hazardous Phenomena:
- Significant convection
- Convection-induced turbulence
- High Altitude Ice crystal icing
- Other phenomena including lightning, hail, heavy rain, high wind/windshear
- Improvement in observation and forecasting techniques:
- Advances in observing methods and use of observations
- Seamless forecast (blended nowcast and model forecast or innovative AI techniques along trajectory of city/airport-pair)
- Probabilistic forecast and statistical methods (for uncertainty/confidence assessment)
- Verification and validation:
- Both scientific and user focus
- User focus:
- MET-ATM impact translation and Impact-based decision support modelling
- Capacity development for WMO Members providing new and enhanced aeronautical meteorological services and young meteorologists
The Project is to demonstrate the concepts of research-to-operations and science-forservices with the full value chain through collaboration between Research Board, INFCOM and SERCOM. It would involve for example airport city-pairs to demonstrate the gate-to-gate use of advance aviation meteorological information in the future aviation operations environment. It would require seamless meteorological information from the take-off, ascent, cruising, descent, until landing phase to support the whole safe and efficient flight operations for the whole trajectory. It fits well with WMO’s seamless earth system initiative, where “seamless” refers not just to the time-scales from minutes to days in this project, but across earth system domains spanning the whole value chain from observations to users’ benefits. Opportunity would be taken to evaluate the impact of observation, including the benefits of additional observations in the terminal area. While weather hazard information from the World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is available for flight planning, this has to be supplemented by advanced nowcasting information for tactical and pre-tactical decisions. The project will study the blending of nowcasting information on the above-mentioned key meteorological hazards with global and regional models using advanced techniques such as the use of Machine Learning methodology. Special attention would be placed on the advancement of the use of ensemble techniques in probabilistic forecasting and statistical methods for assessing the uncertainly/confidence of the information, as well as on verification and validation. There is also a need to link with the Seamless-Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (S-GDPFS) concerning data availability and future modeling improvements. Close connection with the aviation users via, e.g., SC-AVI under SERCOM, would be required to ensure the outcomes are fit-for-purpose.
The Project is expected to last 5 years from 2021 -2025 with periodic reviews of progress to be conducted after an Initial phase (around early to mid 2021) and at midprogress around mid or late 2023. The next phase is the operationalization phase focusing on R2O (2023 till 2025 when the project will be concluded).